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ELECTIONS decide
who is to govern. Constitutions define the reach and
limits of electoral power, and the viability and
legitimacy of a government. The new Iraqi National
Assembly is entitled to form an interim government
that can function as long as its vast Shiite
majority and large Kurdish contingent don't
overreach. But this Assembly, with the Sunni Arab
population underrepresented and the Kurds still a
minority, is unlikely to write a constitution that
protects minorities and inspires popular loyalty.
Many Iraqi leaders and American officials see this
problem clearly and seem to be considering a
solution: the new Assembly should forgo drafting the
constitution and establish a special constitutional
committee for that purpose. Such a committee would
be selected to better reflect both Iraq's population
and its power elites.
It's easy to keep the process legal and ensure it
does not subvert the election. The election law
gives the Assembly the responsibility for putting
together the constitution. But it does not say the
Assembly has to draft the document itself, or forbid
it from assigning the duty to another body. Of
course, the special body would still have to submit
the draft for the Assembly's approval.
Members of this special constitutional committee
would be chosen by the Assembly itself and could be
Assembly members as well as appointees of the new
government. The composition of the committee is
critical. It should include Sunni Arabs in
sufficient numbers; if they are not given a stake in
the new Iraq, most will continue to help their vile
insurgent brethren, willingly or unwillingly.
The committee must also engage Iraq's James Madisons
and Ben Franklins. The constitutional committee has
to include the real power brokers in religion,
politics and commerce. It's not at all clear how
many of these types were elected on Sunday. American
officials probably don't know them all, but Iraqis
do.
As a practical matter, these local leaders would
provide the political cushioning necessary during
the yearlong drafting process and would be essential
to the final passage of the constitution. The public
vote on its approval comes a year hence and requires
a nationwide majority. But Iraqi leaders have agreed
that the constitution can be blocked by a two-thirds
vote in three of the nation's 18 provinces. That
could happen in the three Kurdish provinces or in
the four controlled by Sunni Arabs. With such
stalemate would probably come civil war.
The Shiites would still rightfully form a majority
of the constitutional committee, and they could
insist on giving themselves strong constitutional
powers in a centralized government. But that would
be a mistake.
The only workable government would be a
confederation with three largely autonomous regions
- Kurds in the north, Arab Sunnis in the center and
Shiites in the south. The central government in
Baghdad could be given limited powers under a Shiite
majority, and large, mixed cities could receive
"special status." But whatever power-sharing
arrangement is contrived in the new constitution, it
has to embody a political deal that creates a
legitimate government, a government that Iraqi
forces will fight and die for.
This political legitimacy is what's missing from
Washington's strategy. But instead of debating a
political solution, all Washington seems interested
in talking about is how many Iraqi troops have been
trained, whether the figure is 4,000 or 120,000. The
United States trained more than half a million South
Vietnamese troops and trained them well. But the
South Vietnamese never had loyalty to their
government equal to that of the North Vietnamese or
the South Vietnamese guerrillas to their cause.
We need to evoke just such a cause now if we are to
avoid defeat by the insurgents of Iraq. The great
majority of Iraqis don't want to be ruled or have
their lives ruined by these monsters. But they must
have a government that commands public loyalty and
hope, and looks as if it can prevail.
For all the truly heartwarming effects of Sunday's
elections, the political imperfections of that vote
cannot be overlooked. But those imperfections can be
overcome by a special body that drafts a
constitution with powers, values and protections
worth fighting and dying for.
Leslie H. Gelb, a former editor and columnist for
The Times, is president emeritus of the Council on
Foreign Relations.
http://www.nytimes.com
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