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BAGHDAD, Iraq, -
Iraqi officials awaiting election results began
Tuesday to grapple with the issue of how long
American troops should remain in the country.
At a news conference Tuesday, the interim president,
Sheik Ghazi al-Yawar, said it would be "complete
nonsense to ask the troops to leave in this chaos
and this vacuum of power," a position similar to
that taken last week by Ayad Allawi, the interim
prime minister.
Both men are hoping to retain their posts in the new
government, which appears likely to be a coalition
of groups with differences on other key issues -
including the role of religion in politics - but a
common acceptance of the need for continued American
military power in the battle with Sunni insurgents.
The first official returns from the voting,
including an announcement of the turnout and some
initial vote breakdowns, are likely to be released
Wednesday, according to officials of the Iraqi
election commission. Complete results are expected
to take as much as another week, but preliminary
skirmishing has already begun in the contest for
prominent positions in the new transitional
government.
And just as the elections gave new momentum to the
debate in Washington about eventual American troop
withdrawals, the imminent creation of Iraq's first
fully elected government in decades has stirred
fresh discussion of the issue here. Mostly, Iraqi
politicians who have spoken out on the issue have
emphasized the need for caution, with any reduction
in American troop levels linked to progress in
building effective Iraqi security forces.
Another leading figure, Defense Minister Hazim al-Shalaan,
said at a separate news conference on Tuesday that a
withdrawal of the 150,000 American troops serving in
Iraq would be "very dangerous." He added: "The
American forces cannot leave Iraq now. They will
leave when security is established and there is a
strong army and police force."
The commander of the new Iraqi Army, Gen. Babakir
Zebari, also weighed in, telling reporters that some
withdrawals could begin within a year. "In six
months, or maybe at the end of the year, the
construction of the Iraqi Army will be finished and
our forces will be capable of guaranteeing
security," he said.
A Shiite vice president, Ibrahim Jafari, leader of
the powerful Dawa religious group, warned there
could be civil war if American troops left
prematurely.
The discussion of the issue came as a group led by
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born militant
who has taken responsibility for many of the worst
terrorist attacks of the past 18 months, and who
vowed to wreck the elections with attacks on voters,
issued a new Internet statement dismissing the
voting as "bogus" and vowing to continue the
attacks. "We in the Al Qaeda Organization for Holy
War in Iraq will continue the jihad until the banner
of Islam flies over Iraq," the statement said.
The positions the Iraqi leaders staked out on
American force withdrawals appeared to align closely
with that of United States commanders, who have said
they hope to see enough progress in the building of
Iraq's new forces that they can begin reducing troop
levels, or at least pulling troops back to bases
outside the major cities and towns, by late this
year or early in 2006.
American officers who have been disappointed by many
of the Iraqi security units in the past said they
were pleased with their performance on Sunday, when
they were assigned responsibility for the close
protection of more than 5,300 polling stations, and
stood their ground under a wave of insurgent
attacks.
The statements came on another day, the second since
the elections, with a low level of insurgent attacks
in Iraq. On Sunday, according to figures provided by
the American military command, insurgents mounted
260 attacks, the highest number on any day since
American troops captured Baghdad nearly 22 months
ago. The attacks, including suicide bombings, killed
about 50 people, but failed to have more than a
marginal impact on the voting, in which about 8
million Iraqis cast ballots out of more than 14
million who were eligible, according to the estimate
given by top officials of the election commission as
the polls closed.
There were fears that insurgents would begin a wave
of reprisals on Tuesday, when tight security
restrictions imposed for the elections were lifted.
The actions included an easing of night curfews, the
removal of many temporary checkpoints, the reopening
of the borders and a resumption of commercial
flights at the Baghdad airport.
But scattered reports from across the country
indicated that there had been no new major bomb
blasts, and there were no reports of killings of
voters, although it could be a day or two before any
violence in outlying towns and cities becomes known.
A report from the Kurdish city of Erbil in the north
said two Iraqis were killed by a roadside bomb on
Tuesday. The Associated Press reported that it had
obtained a videotape in which a group calling itself
the Battalions of Holy Jihad in Iraq said it had
captured four members of the Iraqi National Guard
and threatened to inflict "the punishment they
deserve for their treason against the country and
its people."
The same group posted a claim on the Internet that
it had captured an American soldier and said it
would behead the captive within 72 hours unless the
United States released members of the group being
held in detention, but there were indications that
the claim might have been false. The Web site
involved posted a still photograph of the man said
to have been captured, instead of the shaky video
film usually used to announce hostage-takings.
The man, identified by the militants as John Adam,
was shown seated on the ground with his arms behind
his back. He had an almost lifeless stare, and the
body armor and boots he was wearing appeared to
differ from those worn by most American soldiers in
Iraq.
The Pentagon said it was checking, but had no
reports of any soldiers missing. A possible
explanation was offered by the Drudge Report, a Web
site that specializes in media issues, which posted
an article under the headline, "Did Iraqi militants
take 'toy' hostage?" The site posted the photograph
of the soldier said to have been captured alongside
photographs of a toy soldier set that included a
soldier doll with a strikingly similar stare, and a
toy M-16 rifle of the kind carried by American
soldiers. A similar weapon was pointed at the man
who was shown in the photograph of the supposed
hostage, but the weapon appeared suspended in air,
with no hand visible holding it.
The haste with which some of the country's leading
politicians have staked out their positions on the
issue of American troops offered a foretaste of the
maneuvering that lies ahead over the composition of
the new government.
Western officials here have welcomed the political
flurry, saying that it is further evidence, on top
of the high voter turnout, that Iraqis have a fresh
sense that with a new government, this time with a
popular mandate, they will increasingly be in charge
of their own affairs.
Those officials have also noted calls from across
the spectrum of political groups for the new
government to contain a broad ethnic and religious
mix. On Tuesday, Sheik Ghazi, the interim president,
said he intended to make a renewed push to get
Sunnis involved, including participation in the
drafting of a new constitution, even if the turnout
among Sunni voters proved to be low.
He predicted that the new government would maintain
the same ethnic balance in its top posts - a Sunni
as president, a Shiite as prime minister, and a
Shiite and a Kurd as the two vice presidents - as
was the case in the departing administration.
From the evidence so far the leading contenders in
the battle for top posts are likely to be drawn from
the largest coalition of Shiite parties, the United
Iraqi Alliance, centered on powerful Iran-backed
religious parties but also including a wide array of
secular and independent candidates. Another
important force is likely to be Dr. Allawi's Iraqi
List group, a secular coalition that includes not
only Shiites like Dr. Allawi but also many Sunnis.
A key to what may happen on the issue of American
forces, and on the formation of the new government,
lies in the attitudes of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader
of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in
Iraq, the most powerful of the religious groups in
the Shiite alliance.
He was quoted on Tuesday by the Agence France-Presse
news agency as having said that his group would not
seek to establish a Shiite state, "but to have a
government whose priority is to respect the people's
opinion, to organize elections and to have a
government in favor of everyone's participation."
http://www.nytimes.com
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