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The
Kurds are to stick to their demand for the oil city
of Kirkuk and a degree of autonomy which is close to
independence as negotiations begin to form the next
Iraqi government. The coalition of Shia parties, the
United Iraqi Alliance, has 140 seats in the
275-member National Assembly but despite its
electoral triumph other parties are waiting to see
if it will hold together. The coalition was cobbled
together out of disparate groups under the influence
of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
"The coalition is not as strong as we thought - with
all of the weight of Sistani, it didn't get an
absolute majority," said a Kurdish politician who
asked not to be named. Nevertheless Iraqi Shias, 60
per cent of the population but never previously in
power, feel that their moment has come.
The Kurds are in a strong position to press their
demands because they have 75 seats. In the past they
were always the core of the opposition to Saddam
Hussein and their leaders have far more political
and administrative experience than returning Shia
exiles. The Kurds are the only people to support the
US occupation.
Kurdish leaders say they will refuse to compromise
over Kirkuk or the autonomy of the three northern
Kurdish provinces from which Saddam Hussein
retreated in 1991. They will also reject applying
Islamic law in Kurdish regions.
The newly elected assembly is expected to meet in
the next two weeks. It will first elect a president
and two vice presidents by a two thirds majority and
they in turn will chose a prime minister. He will
then put together a government which must be
supported by a simple majority in the assembly.
The Kurds have been keen to institutionalise the
gains they made on the ground during the war in
2003, recovering lands from which they had been
driven out of in Kirkuk and Mosul provinces. They
also want the right of return for Kurdish refugees.
Shia and Sunni parties reject this in theory but
there is not much they can do about it. The
wrangling over the next two weeks will also be over
ministerial posts and other jobs. There are not
enough of these go around. If they are allocated to
each party or religious and ethnic group, Iraq may
get a weak government, such as that of Lebanon.
Sunni and former Baathist officials in the security
ministries are also frightened that the de-Baathification
campaign, suspended for the moment, will be resumed.
"We will make conditions such as the right of return
for refugees and for Kirkuk to belong to the
Kurdistan region administratively," said the
politician. "There will be some compromising but it
will be less about the federal status of Kurdistan
and more about who gets what ministerial post."
It is believed the post of president will be filled
by Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union
of Kurdistan, one of the two major Kurdish political
parties. He is a vigorous and eloquent leader with
his own political and military organisation who is
likely to be much more important than Sheikh Ghazi
al-Yawar, the US-appointed interim President.
The government must also establish a committee to
draw up a new constitution. "It seems there is an
agreement that the head of the constitution
committee will be Fouad Massoum," the politician
said, referring to the member of Mr Talabani's party
who headed last year's National Assembly.
The Kurdish politician said a choice for the
speaker, who is expected to be a Sunni Arab, could
come tonight. Mr Yawar, whose party won five seats
in the assembly, has been floated as a possibility,
but "probably doesn't enjoy enough support", the
politician said.
Wire news services reported today that the
US-appointed interim Prime Minister, Iyad Allawi,
has refused to drop his bid to retain his post in
the new transitional government. The post of prime
minister "seems a matter for the Arabs to decide",
the politician said.
http://www.independent.co.uk
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