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SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq -- The picture hangs in
homes, offices and buildings all over Iraq's Kurdish
region: A pear-shaped man with wire-rimmed glasses
is brandishing a map at a table full of politicians.
It is Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani waving an
early-1900s map of Iraq at a meeting of the Iraqi
Governing Council. Talabani declared the document
proved that Kirkuk -- an oil-rich city of 1 million
that Saddam Hussein "Arabized" through forced
migration -- had always been part of Iraq's Kurdish
region.
At that moment, on Feb. 9, 2004, control of Kirkuk
became a centerpiece of the political struggle over
a new Iraq. The issue is so significant for Kurds
that some can describe exactly what they were doing
on the day Talabani brought their demands before the
Governing Council.
Today, Talabani is the leading candidate to become
Iraq's new president. Although the job is largely
ceremonial, with few defined responsibilities, it
would give Talabani a national platform to push two
major Kurdish aspirations: greater autonomy in
northern Iraq and control over Kirkuk, a mixed city
of Arabs, Kurds and Turkomen.
"The presidency is a symbolic post, but Talabani
will use it effectively to advance Kurdish demands,"
said Fareed Asasard, director of the Kurdish
Strategic Studies Center, an independent think tank
based in Sulaimaniyah. "He is a masterful
politician."
In last month's parliamentary election, an alliance
of Kurdish parties won 75 seats -- the
second-largest bloc -- in the 275-member National
Assembly. A coalition of Shia Muslim parties won a
slim majority of 140 seats, but that is not enough
for the two-thirds vote needed for most decisions in
parliament. Kurds and Shias are expected to form an
alliance. In exchange for supporting a Shia
candidate for the powerful post of prime minister,
the Kurds have demanded that Talabani be named
president when parliament convenes later this week.
"Kurds are in a very strong position politically
because Shias need the Kurdish bloc in parliament,"
said Hiwa Osman, a Kurdish political analyst.
"Without the Kurds, there can be no agreement on a
new government."
Beyond naming a government, the future of the Shia-Kurdish
alliance is shaky. The Kurds, who make up a fifth of
the country's 25 million people, are worried about
Shia religious parties trying to impose Islamic laws
during the drafting of Iraq's new constitution. For
their part, Shias are resistant to Kurdish demands
for greater autonomy and for control over Kirkuk,
home to a tenth of Iraq's oil reserves.
The conflict over Kirkuk is one of the most
explosive in Iraq. It pits Kurds who were expelled
from the city against Arabs who were brought in by
Hussein's regime to change the ethnic balance. More
broadly, the Kurds' demand to absorb Kirkuk into
their autonomous region is viewed by Arabs as a
threat to Iraq's unity. Iraq's neighbors also see it
as the first step toward Kurdish independence,
something that Turkey, Syria and Iran would never
allow.
As president, Talabani would play a key role in
mediating over Kirkuk. But Kurdish ambitions would
not rest solely in his hands. There are two main
Kurdish leaders in Iraq: Talabani, 71, who heads the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, known as PUK; and
Massoud Barzani, 56, who leads the Kurdistan
Democratic Party, known as KDP.
Since 1991, the two parties have controlled an
autonomous Kurdish region of 3.5 million people in
northern Iraq. During Hussein's regime, the area was
protected by a "no-fly" zone patrolled by U.S. and
British warplanes. Combined, the two Kurdish parties
control about 100,000 militiamen.
The two groups have a bloody rivalry, and their
leaders spent 20 years trying to kill each other. In
1994, a civil war erupted in the Kurdish self-rule
area, and it claimed thousands of lives over the
next four years. In August 1996, as the PUK was
routing the KDP, Barzani invited Hussein back into
the Kurdish region. More than 30,000 Iraqi troops
swept into the area to save the KDP from
destruction.
The fighting effectively divided the Kurdish region
into two zones: a western section controlled by the
KDP, with Irbil as its capital, and an eastern
region controlled by the PUK, with Sulaimaniyah as
its center. The two parties established parallel
civil administrations, each with its own cabinet
headed by a prime minister. Under U.S. pressure, the
two parties agreed to end their civil war in 1998.
But the cease-fire deal could not pave the way for
Barzani and Talabani to combine their governments.
In last month's election, the Kurdish parties
fielded a unified slate of candidates for
parliament. As part of their deal, the two leaders
agreed that Talabani would take any national post
given to the Kurds, while Barzani would become
president of the Kurdish region.
"The two leaders were able to put aside their
history to ensure that the Kurdish vote would not be
split," said Shwan Mahmood, political editor of
Hawlati, an independent Kurdish newspaper. "There is
hope that they will finally be able to unify the
Kurdish region ... That's the only way to protect
the Kurds' interests."
Other analysts say the two leaders realize that they
can win control of Kirkuk only if they suppress
intra-Kurdish rivalries. For Kurdish politicians,
Kirkuk carries the kind of symbolic weight and
pitfalls that Jerusalem has for Palestinian leaders.
"Even with Talabani as president, it's going to be
major struggle to regain Kirkuk," Osman said. "Talabani
and Barzani have to stay united."
Beneath Kirkuk, there are 10 billion barrels of
proven oil reserves. The area can produce 800,000
barrels per day, and it is also the origin of the
Iraqi pipeline that pumps oil to the Mediterranean
coast. Kirkuk is a tangle of ethnic grievances among
its Arab, Kurdish and Turkomen residents. Arab
leaders say Kurdish gunmen have expelled hundreds of
Arab families from their homes since the fall of
Hussein's regime in April 2003.
Between 1991 and 2002, according to Human Rights
Watch, about 120,000 Kurds were forced out of the
city and surrounding villages in a campaign of "Arabization"
intended to populate the area with those loyal to
Hussein. Kurdish leaders estimate more than 300,000
Kurds were expelled from Kirkuk starting in the
1980s.
Kurds view Kirkuk as the ancient seat of Kurdistan
and believe it should be the capital of their region
in a newly formed Iraqi federation. But neighboring
Turkey fears that, if Iraqi Kurds expand their
autonomous zone to Kirkuk, they would be closer to
declaring independence, and that could trigger
similar aspirations among the 12 million Kurds in
Turkey.
Turkish officials warn that they would respond with
force if Kurds gained control of Kirkuk. A Turkish
military incursion into northern Iraq would create
regional instability, and could prompt Iraq's other
neighbors -- especially Syria and Iran, which have
large Kurdish minorities -- to send their own troops
into Iraq.
Despite the desire of most Iraqi Kurds to seek
independence, Kurdish leaders have vowed they will
remain an autonomous region of Iraq. But most Kurds
would not accept autonomy without control over
Kirkuk.
Even as he is set to become the first Kurdish
president in Iraq's history, Talabani's legacy will
be judged by whether he is able to deliver on Kirkuk.
"The old generation of leaders spent their lives
fighting to create what we have now," Asasard said.
"Still, everyone is waiting to see if they will be
able to win back Kirkuk."
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