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Turkey
officially alleges "manipulations and
irregularities" in the Jan. 30 elections where a
unified Kurdish ticket claimed 59 percent of the
vote in Kirkuk, with Turkomens gaining only 18
percent. It cites reports that Kurds from other
areas were brought to Kirkuk to boost their votes
against Turkomens and Arabs. Kurds say that their
people driven out of Kirkuk in Saddam Hussein's 'Arabisation'
drive are coming back.
"Some people are looking the other way while mass
migration takes place," Turkish Prime Miister Recep
Tayyib Erdogan said recently, referring to the
United States. "This is going to create major
difficulties in the future. Everyone must know that
Turkey...won't allow this geography to be delivered
to chaos that will last for many years."
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul has said that
"in case of fighting in Kirkuk, Turkey cannot remain
a spectator." Kurdish leaders have warned Turkey
that any intervention would lead to disaster.
Modern Turkey's predecessor, the Ottoman Empire,
ruled both Kirkuk and Mosul, another oil-rich city
in the north, until they were ceded to Britain in
the 1920s. Although it had legal right to a share of
the oil wealth, Turkey gave it up for a lump sum in
a decision Turks still regret.
How credible is the Turkish threat of military
intervention in northern Iraq? Can it risk
confrontation with the United States, still smarting
over Turkey's refusal to open a 'northern front'
against Saddam? On the other hand, the United States
enjoys cordial relations with Kurds who backed it
against Saddam.
Early sabre-rattling is soothing a Turkish populace
concerned that their country is a mere spectator to
vital developments in bordering Iraq. But a military
strike is "highly unlikely", says Swedish expert
Henrik Liljegren.
There are significant "restraining factors",
Liljegren, former diplomat and now senior associate
at the Istanbul Policy Centre told IPS. He cited
them as damage to Turkey's bid to join the European
Union, international law, public opinion
(particularly in Muslim countries) and above all the
United States.
Turkey appears to be having as much trouble with the
United States as with Kurds in northern Iraq. Its
traditional 'strategic partnership', while still
active on paper, suffered a serious blow when the
Turkish parliament voted against Turkey joining the
war on Saddam, or allowing U.S. troops to cross its
territory.
Recent opinion polls indicate that 60 percent of
Turks are anti-American. Turks are particularly
irked by the U.S. refusal to move against about
5,000 Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas holed
up in mountains in northern Iraq bordering Turkey,
despite declaring the PKK a terrorist organisation.
When U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said
she sees no difference between Kurdish PKK
guerrillas and al-Qaeda, Turkish columnist Semih
Idiz wrote: "If that is the case, why aren't you
going after the PKK like you are going after
al-Qaeda?"
The United States has said the PKK will be dealt
with later, and that the current priority is
developments in Iraq.
But Liljegren believes that should PKK guerrillas
slip back into Turkey, re-kindling fears of civil
strife that took 30,000 lives in the 1980s and
1990s, Turkey can strike at them in Iraq in
"self-defence" or "hot pursuit". Turkey has
maintained a few thousand troops inside northern
Iraq for years.
The Turkish foreign ministry says its approach to
Iraq has "a strategic perspective" and is not
confined to PKK guerrillas, Turkomens or Kirkuk. But
some analysts say the Turkish establishment, both
military and political, suffers from a "Kurdish
phobia" that drives it to seek military solutions.
Turkish analyst Dogu Ergil says Turkey should
encourage Turkomen-Kurdish reconciliation rather
than "driving a wedge between them."
Iraqi Kurds say publicly they do not harbour
anti-Turkish designs, while never hiding the fact
that full independence remains their ultimate ideal.
In an unofficial ballot accompanying the Jan. 30
elections, some 95 percent of Iraqi Kurdish voters
are reported to have favoured independence. "When
the right time comes, it will be a reality," Barzani
has said.
Whatever form its takes, a strong Kurdish entity in
land-locked northern Iraq would need friendly
relations with Turkey, observers say.
"Despite mutual distrust, ours and the future of
Kurds are interlinked," says Mehmet Ali Birand, a
leading Turkish commentator on Kurdish affairs.
"Kurds should know that without Turkey they will
never ensure their security. On the other hand,
Turkey should realise that without the Kurds, Turkey
cannot influence what's happening in Iraq. It might
be a historic joke, but Turks and Kurds need each
other."
http://www.ipsnews.net
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