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ISTANBUL, Turkey - Turkey, home to the largest
Kurdish minority in the world, is watching nervously
as Kurds gain unprecedented political power in
neighboring Iraq following major gains in that
country's elections.
Opposition to Kurdish nationalism has been a
cornerstone of Turkish policy for decades, out of
fear that Turkish Kurds could be encouraged to press
for independence. Some 12 million Kurds live in
Turkey.
The Turkish military has battled Kurdish insurgents
in southeastern Turkey since 1984, a fight that has
left 37,000 dead, and Turkish officials have
stressed that the country will not accept Kurdish
independence in northern Iraq, which borders Turkey.
For Turkey, the election gains of the Iraqi Kurds —
who took almost a quarter of the vote of national
elections late last month and are demanding the
presidency — have been stunning.
But official Turkish reaction has been largely
subdued with some analysts saying the elections
could end up promoting Iraqi stability rather than
Kurdish independence.
Some officials "believe it may be better for Kurds
to take significant posts in the government and
integrate into a unified Iraq," said Sami Kohen, a
columnist with the Milliyet newspaper. That, he
said, could forestall any push for independence.
Part of the caution may be a result of the visit
earlier this month of U.S. Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice ), who stressed to Turkish leaders
that the United States will not allow the breakup of
Iraq.
"We are fully committed, fully committed, to a
unified Iraq," Rice told reporters aboard her plane
to Turkey. "We are making that message clear through
all channels that we have in Iraq."
Turkey has repeatedly said that it will not tolerate
the disintegration of neighboring Iraq and Kurdish
independence, and military officers have spoken of
the possibility of Turkey sending in troops if the
country fell apart.
But invading a country that is already occupied by
U.S. troops could be a disaster for Turkey,
provoking a conflict with the country's best ally.
"The reality of it is that there is not too much
that the Turks can do at this stage, unless they are
willing to intervene militarily, which has immense
consequences," said Bulent Aliriza, an analyst with
the Washington-based Center for Strategic and
International Studies.
And for the Americans, cooperating with the Iraqi
Kurds is crucial. The Kurdish area is largely
patrolled by pro-American Kurdish fighters, not U.S.
troops, and is one of the few quiet areas of the
country. The Kurds controlled an autonomous area of
northern Iraq before the war and Kurdish fighters
fought alongside U.S. troops during the battles.
"It seems the Turks are taking the Americans at
their word that they will not allow the breakup of
Iraq," Aliriza said.
"They have to rely on the Americans as the occupying
power to prevent bad things from happening and that
is where we are now, but how long will the honeymoon
last?" he asked.
Of specific concern for Turkey is control of the
oil-rich, ethnically divided city of Kirkuk.
A Kurdish-led alliance captured more than half of
the seats in elections in the city and Turkey has
charged that Kurds are flooding into Kirkuk, trying
to change its ethnic balance.
Turkey fears that Kurdish control of the city will
make an independent state more viable. An informal
Kurdish referendum held at the time of the election
showed strong support for independence.
AP
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