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IRBIL,
Iraq - Iraqi Kurds hope their apparent strong
showing in the Jan. 30 national elections will
strengthen their case for self-rule and enable them
to reverse what they consider a land grab by Saddam
Hussein that cut into their northern stronghold.
But Arabs and Turkomen, another ethnic group in
northern Iraq, are nervously watching developments,
fearful the Kurds will press demands at their
expense.
An alliance of two Kurdish parties was running
second in partial returns released early this week.
Although the Kurds may not hold onto that second
spot, they are likely to end up with a sizable bloc
in the 275-member National Assembly as it works to
approve a new government and draft a permanent
constitution.
That would give the Kurds, an ethnic group long
oppressed by Saddam, more power than they've had
since the establishment of modern Iraq. It would
also give them a pivotal role in the country's
future. |
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Rival Kurdish factions, the Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan and the Kurdish Democratic Party, managed
to put aside their differences to field a joint
ticket in the National Assembly contest. There is
also talk the two will eventually merge their
peshmerga militias.
But the next seven months are crucial, and the Kurds
want to be prepared. They are willing to work with
any group, they say - as long as they get what they
want.
To that end they've enlisted the help of
international experts to advise on the best form of
federalism, a model the Kurds are currently pushing
for Iraq in order to ensure they get adequate
self-rule. Longterm, many would prefer outright
independence.
Top Kurdish officials, including deputy Prime
Minister Barham Saleh and Foreign Minister Hoshiyar
Zebari, discussed constitutional reforms recently in
Baghdad, and Kurds held a three-day conference on
the issue in the northern city of Irbil.
"Today is the time to forget about the big cake that
will shrink with time," said Andre Poupart, a
Canadian lawyer attending the conference, referring
to the dream of Kurdish independence. "Think of the
small cake that will grow with years."
Overall at this point, the Kurds say they are
prepared to enter a coalition with any party,
including the Shiite alliance that is leading the
vote count, or the alliance led by interim Prime
Minister Ayad Allawi - whose ticket is in third
place, according to the latest count.
Allawi flew to Irbil on Thursday for talks with
Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, head of the
Kurdistan Democratic Party. Barzani said the talks
were aimed at ensuring that "our viewpoints are
coherent" but gave no details about the discussions.
"We are pragmatists. We will work with Allawi and
with (Shiite alliance leader Abdul-Aziz) al-Hakim.
It will depend on who gives us more," said Mustafa,
the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan official.
With the Shiite religious alliance leading the vote,
a Shiite will most likely be named prime minister,
although al-Hakim has ruled himself out for the
post. But because of the Kurds' success at the
polls, PUK leader Jalal Talabani is likely to
receive the largely ceremonial role of president.
Observers say it is in the interest of the Shiites
to build good relations with the Kurds and bring
them into the government. If the Shiites take
too-dominant a role in the new government, they are
likely to rile the Sunni minority, creating more
support for the Sunni-led insurgency.
Yet Arabs and Turkomen are leery of the growing
Kurdish importance and goals. Already, they believe
the Kurds are attempting to turn out hundreds of
thousands of Arabs whom Saddam moved to the north
over a 30-year period to solidify control of the
oil-rich city of Kirkuk and the key Iranian border
town of Khanaqin. A similar number of Kurds were
forced from their homes in the process.
Indeed, Kurds make no secret of their desire to
control those cities.
"We will take back Kirkuk," said the PUK's Mustafa,
noting that initial results in the Jan. 30
provincial elections showed the alliance list of
Kurds and smaller Turkomen and Assyrian groups had
won between 25 and 28 seats of the 41 seats in
Kirkuk's provincial council.
In the end, the majority of the Kurdish population
want independence, not federalism. About 1.9 million
people put down their signatures in an unofficial
referendum on the same day as the elections. Iraq's
neighbors, notably Turkey, would never stand for
that, fearing it could inspire their own Kurdish
populations to break away.
But for now, Iraqi Kurds are prepared to see what
benefits can come from participating in a new Iraqi
government and postpone more radical action.
"If Kurds don't get a top job or feel part of Iraq
by next year, the number of signatures in a
referendum will be 3 million," said Kurdish
columnist Hiwa Osman. "But if it works, it will be a
lesson for the whole region."
AP
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