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Ankara/Amman/Brussels, 26 January 2005: While
attention is focused on the insurgency against the
interim Iraqi government and the occupation troops,
another conflict is brewing in northern Iraq that
could precipitate civil war, the break-up of the
country and, in a worst-case scenario, Turkish
intervention.
Iraq: Allaying Turkey's Fears over Kurdish
Ambitions,* the latest report from the International
Crisis Group, warns that tensions are at
boiling-point in the oil-rich Kirkuk region. The
U.S. and EU need to do more to resolve the Kirkuk
question and help Ankara protect its vital interests
without resort to destabilising threats of military
intervention.
"As the U.S. is forced by a worsening insurgency to
concentrate on instability in the rest of the
country, things in Kirkuk might well get out of hand
and the communities there find themselves in a
violent stand-off", says Joost Hiltermann, Director
of Crisis Group's Middle East Project.
The situation has been aggravated by the worsening
state of affairs in Iraq and by political actors,
especially Kurds, who are seeking to undo the grave
injustices of the ousted regime's policy of
Arabisation. Kurds are currently returning in large
numbers and laying claim to multi-ethnic Kirkuk as
the capital of a future Kurdish region, or state.
Tensions have been contained somewhat by the
presence of U.S. troops and a U.S.-engineered
interim political arrangement -- a provincial
council broadly representative of the four
communities -- that, against all odds, has held, but
only just.
From Ankara's perspective, chaos or civil war in
Iraq, the creation of a Kurdish state in the north
with Kirkuk as its capital that would serve as a
magnet or model for Turkey's own Kurdish population,
or a combination of these, are nightmare scenarios.
Should Turkish national interests seem to be in
jeopardy, there is no real insurance against the
threat of military action.
For a qualitative improvement in relations, a number
of steps will have to be taken by both Ankara and
the Kurdish leadership in Iraq to change the
atmosphere and establish mechanisms to head off
emerging conflicts. First, both should halt
inflammatory rhetoric. Secondly, Turkey should cease
financial support of the Iraqi Turkoman Front to
reduce the likelihood of using the Turkoman issue to
justify military intervention.
Kurdish leaders should exercise greater restraint in
Kirkuk, principally by handing control of local
government to the governorate council to be elected
at the end of January and by conditioning their
people for an eventual compromise solution of
Kurdish national issues within Iraq. The interests
of both also would be served by appointment of a UN
special rapporteur for Kirkuk.
"Turkey needs stability in Iraqi Kurdistan, whatever
its eventual status", says Hiltermann. "The only way
it can facilitate this is to work closely with the
Iraqi Kurdish leadership to promote trade and funnel
investment to the region".
The U.S., which remains Turkey's strategic ally, and
the EU both have an interest in dissuading the
government from counter-productive actions in
northern Iraq and encouraging it to play a
constructive role in an increasingly volatile
situation. They should work proactively to resolve
the Kirkuk question, strengthening relations between
the government in Ankara and the Iraqi Kurdish
leadership, and promoting investment in south
eastern Turkey, so as to give the Kurdish population
material evidence of the benefits it stands to gain
from eventual Turkish accession to the EU.
Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 485
555 946
http://www.crisisgroup.org
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