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BAGHDAD – In the month since Iraqis rushed to
the polls in support of democracy, getting anything
done has proved a painstaking process of
consensus-building that's now focused on two
political groups whose interests are diametrically
opposed.
The national assembly that will write the country's
permanent constitution cannot meet until key
government positions are assigned. And central to
determining how power will be allocated are the
United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), religious Shiites who
hold the majority of seats, and the once-powerless
Kurds, who control the second-largest number of
seats in the assembly.
The two groups are at loggerheads on a number of
issues. The Shiites are determined to use Islam as a
legal cornerstone, something the staunchly secular
Kurds reject. The Kurds say they will cooperate only
with those who offer them control of oil-rich Kirkuk
- a promise that Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the Shiite
choice for prime minister, has said the UIA will
never make.
But the Kurds are showing little inclination,
publicly at least, to compromise. "Even if we are
forced to fight for our rights" with guns, we will,
says Abduljalil Feili, the head of the Kurdistan
Democratic Party in central and southern Iraq. "We
prefer negotiations and a political solution. [But]
we will use all the options we have."
As the political powers continued to jockey for
influence, insurgent violence continued with a bomb
in Mosul killing eight people Sunday. But the
government also announced the detention Sunday of
Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hasan al-Tikriti, Saddam Hussein's
half-brother and No. 36 on the US list of 55
most-wanted figures. On Friday, officials said they
had nabbed Abu Qutaybah, described as a key
lieutenant of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Al Qaeda's
leader in Iraq.
The Kurds' assertiveness flows from their legal
trump card. Under the transitional administrative
law (TAL), written last spring by the Interim
Governing Council with US guidance, a permanent
constitution can be vetoed if three provinces do not
ratify it. The Kurds control Iraq's three northern
provinces.
"At the rate they are going, they will have to ask
for an extension," in writing the constitution, says
Nathan Brown, a professor of political science at
George Washington University. "The really difficult
issues are ones where we just don't have any idea
how flexible they will be."
The current political wrangling has its source in
laws designed to force disparate political groups to
work together, and to prevent another authoritarian
regime by giving significant power to minority
groups.
Among other consensus-building mechanisms, the TAL
requires two-thirds of the national assembly to
approve the president, a new government, and a new
constitution.
Those requirements have allowed small groups to play
spoiler in order to extract promises of influence.
No decisions have been made on filling the
presidency, vacancies for two deputies, and the
cabinet. But one official from the Supreme Council
of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), a main
group in the UIA, said they hope to meet this week
with leaders of the UIA, Kurds, Interim Prime
Minister Iyad Allawi, and President Ghazi Yawar, a
leading Sunni politician, to negotiate.
The UIA wants to give moderate Sunnis at least three
leading positions, possibly one of the deputy
presidents, the speaker of the national assembly,
and control of a key ministry, such as defense. Most
Sunnis boycotted the election and there are fears
the Sunni insurgency will worsen if they aren't
included in the government.
"The train of democracy is starting down the line,"
says the SCIRI official. "Maybe we will stay in the
station a few minutes, but the train is moving."
UIA officials are also proposing to create a
national security position for Mr. Allawi, who has
made an aggressive if unlikely bid to keep his job.
Andres Arato, a constitutional expert at the New
School University in New York, says Kurdish demands
and the two-thirds vote required to approve the new
government and permanent constitution may delay the
constitution longer than anyone expected. In that
event, the country will have to continue to use the
TAL, which he says could be destabilizing over the
long term. "The very high threshold means you [may]
never have a government," Mr. Arato says.
David Phillips, a senior fellow at the Council on
Foreign Relations, says that while Iraq is on an
uncharted path, similar experiences in other
countries have shown the importance of
decentralizing authority. He says it is important to
spread power among the country's governorates and
local government. While the process is slow, it will
probably continue to move forward, he says.
"It's definitely taking time for Iraqis to find
common ground, but when you look at each threshold
moment [previously] ... they waited until the 11th
hour and cut deals," Phillips says. "That's what
happening now."
http://www.csmonitor.com
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