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After poll, constitution will be Iraq's
next hurdle
14.12.2005
By Luke Baker
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BAGHDAD, Dec 14
(Reuters) - Iraq may pass another milestone on its
U.S.-paved road to democracy when it holds an
election on Thursday, but waiting on the other side
is a potentially large obstruction -- reworking the
constitution.
In a referendum in October, Iraqis voted "yes" to a
new national charter, drawn up after months of
acrimonious debate that again exposed the country's
ethnic and sectarian divisions.
To patch up some of those differences, four days
before the referendum, parliament agreed that parts
of the charter would be renegotiated in the new year
to placate Sunni Arabs, who felt it favoured the
Shi'ite Muslim majority and ethnic Kurds.
The U.S. ambassador to Iraq was instrumental in
striking that deal, intent on keeping the Sunnis,
the bedrock of the insurgency, inside the political
process. On the basis of the accord, some Sunnis
agreed to vote "yes" in the referendum.
According to the deal, the parliament that emerges
from Thursday's vote will form a committee that has
four months to come up with recommendations on how
to amend the constitution.
But the process could aggravate the already deep
mistrust between Shi'ites and minority Sunnis,
suspicions which have pushed the country to the
brink of sectarian war.
It will also force another collision between
competing visions of Iraq's future -- Shi'ite and
Kurdish hopes for their own autonomous, oil-rich
regions in the south and north, and the Sunni desire
for a strong, centralised Iraqi state.
Aware of just how crucial the renegotiation of the
constitution will be, particularly when it comes to
oil resources, U.S. President George W. Bush
referred to it in a speech this week as he laid out
the challenges ahead.
And Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador in Iraq,
reiterated that line on Tuesday, pointing out that
work would be far from over once Thursday's election
is complete.
"The next assembly will also have the opportunity to
amend the constitution to make it more broadly
acceptable, and to pass more than 50 laws to
implement the various articles of the constitution,"
he told reporters.
OIL FIGHT
The crucial issue is federalism, and with it access
to resources. The Kurds, who have had effective
autonomy in northern Iraqi since the 1991 Gulf War,
are intent on cementing that separation -- they want
an autonomous federal Kurdish region.
The Shi'ites, meanwhile, have given themselves the
option of forging a similar federated region in the
south.
Both would have a claim on oil profits, and, in
particular, be the sole recipients of any revenues
stemming from new oil and gas discoveries in those
resource-rich regions.
The Sunnis could be left with a rump state in the
middle, where little oil has been found and the land
is mostly desert.
"That is the single most difficult challenge in
terms of the post-December politicking that Iraqis
will have to face," said Larry Diamond, a fellow at
the Hoover Institution who previously worked with
the U.S. occupation authority in Iraq.
If the Shi'ites and Kurds are allowed to push ahead
with their plans it would be similar to
decentralisation in post-colonial Nigeria in the
1960s, a move that led to civil war, Diamond said:
"It's a formula for the polarisation and
disintegration of the country."
The problem is the Kurds don't seem willing to
renegotiate.
While Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, said
after the agreement to rework the charter that "the
only book that cannot be changed is the Koran", his
followers in Kurdistan won't want to see their dream
of an autonomous region altered.
And some Shi'ites, particularly Abdul Aziz al-Hakim,
the leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq, a pro-Iranian party that is a
powerful government player, also won't want to give
up on a strong Shi'ite mini-state.
Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, another Shi'ite
leader, has talked of the need to compromise, but
positions are likely to harden once the
parliamentary committee has been set up and starts
work on its bloc of amendment recommendations.
If changes are made, they will have to be approved
by a majority in parliament, and then in a
referendum. If two-thirds of voters in three
provinces say "no" -- and Sunnis have a majority in
three provinces -- then the referendum will fail.
Reuters
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