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Iraqi charter gains wide backing
5.10.2005
By Andrew Quinn
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BAGHDAD - Recent
polling shows widespread support for a new Iraqi
constitution to be voted on Oct. 15, even in
strongholds of Sunni Arab groups that are fighting
to derail the charter.
Mehdi Hafedh, director of the Iraqi Center for
Development and International Dialogue, said his
latest survey showed that Iraqis are exhausted by
the continuing violence and that most are hoping the
new constitution will be a first step toward the
restoration of order.
"The Iraqi people want to finalize the political
process as soon as possible. ... They want to
establish a normal government and institutions," Mr.
Hafedh said yesterday, adding: "Iraqis want this
situation to end. It is untenable."
The poll of 3,625 Iraqis, conducted Sept. 14 to 19,
showed 79 percent in favor of the draft constitution
and 8 percent opposed. The remainder did not
respond.
A high percentage of respondents said they intended
to vote and that the level of violence likely would
be reduced after the referendum.
Iraq's parliament, which is controlled by Shi'ites
and Kurds, reinterpreted the rules for the balloting
during the weekend in what was seen as a bid to
ensure that the constitution could not be blocked by
the Sunni minority.
A provision originally intended to give a veto to
the Kurds says the referendum can be defeated by a
two-thirds "no" vote in any three provinces. Sunnis
constitute a majority in four provinces.
The National Assembly ruled Sunday that it would
require two-thirds of registered voters in those
provinces to defeat the referendum, as opposed to
two-thirds of votes cast. But it also ruled that a
simple majority of votes cast overall was sufficient
for approval of the constitution.
Jose Aranaz, a legal adviser to the U.N. electoral
team in Iraq, said yesterday that the United Nations
had expressed objections to the assembly "and to the
leadership of the government and told them that the
decision that was taken was not acceptable and would
not meet international standards."
"Hopefully, by [today], the situation will be
clarified," he said.
"They cannot have a double interpretation in the
same sentence," Mr. Aranaz added. "The
interpretation, which we asked for 2 1/2 months ago,
came late, and it came wrong."
The assembly's ruling threatened to further alienate
Sunnis, many of whom are opposed to the constitution
and are hoping to defeat it in the referendum.
But the polling by the Iraqi Center for Development
and International Dialogue -- a nonprofit
organization funded partially by the United Nations
-- indicated that the referendum was headed for
passage regardless of the Sunday parliamentary
action.
"The part that surprised me was the percentage of
supporters for the referendum. I didn't expect
that," said Mr. Hafedh, who was minister of planning
under interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.
Although support for the constitution was
particularly high in the northern Kurdish areas and
southern regions dominated by Shi'ites, Mr. Hafedh
said it topped 50 percent even in central provinces
known as the heartland of Sunni unrest -- a sign, he
said, that the Sunni-Shi'ite split is not as wide as
many fear.
"This is exaggerated by political elites who are
seeking power and by Western media and analysts,"
Mr. Hafedh said. "If you go down to the streets, you
can't tell who is Sunni and who is Shi'ite. We are
all mixed."
He said most opponents of the constitution cited
reasons ranging from Iraq's lack of sovereignty to
poor security, while far fewer cited explicit
political concerns over the document.
Mr. Hafedh conceded that it sometimes was difficult
to gauge the precise political views of Iraq's
voters and that many poll respondents might have
been influenced by religious leaders who have called
for supporting the constitution.
Reuters
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