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Iran,
Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey have
pledged not to interfere in Iraq's 30 January polls.
The ballot will elect members of a new National
Assembly that will choose the next interim
government.
Foreign ministers from the six countries, meeting in
Amman on 6 January, released a 12-point statement,
emphasizing their respect for the sovereignty,
independence, territorial integrity, and national
unity of Iraq.
Ali Reza Nourizadeh is the director of the Center
for Arab and Iranian Studies in London. He says such
support comes from a clear understanding that Iraq
cannot continue as it is now.
"Absolutely, because you know the mosaic of Iraq is
such that only through an unbiased and clean
election can this country be ruled," Nourizadeh
says.
While they say they support the vote, Iraq's
neighbors approach the elections from radically
different political perspectives.
Feelings strongly differ on Shi'a having a bigger
say in Iraq after the vote. Shi'a Arabs make up more
than 60 percent of the population but have had
little political influence in Iraq, which has
historically been ruled by minority Sunnis.
Iran is the biggest Shi'a state in the world, and
Tehran has expressed its support for the upcoming
vote. President Hojatoleslam Mohammad Khatami said
this week that Iran is opposed to any postponement
or delay in the polls, a move which it believes
would only worsen the security situation.
Nourizadeh says Tehran is not only concerned about
security and stability. He says Iran would like to
see conservative Shi'a religious figures accede to
power in Baghdad.
Others, mostly Sunni-ruled Middle Eastern countries,
look on such a possibility warily.
"If the Shi'a [in power] are pro-Iranian Shi'a, of
course, they all are going to react and they all
will be very, very concerned. But also let's not
forget that [interim Prime Minister Iyad] Allawi is
also a Shi'a, but nobody is scared of him, and
actually they all welcome him -- starting from
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries,"
Nourizadeh says.
Arab politicians openly voice concerns about
possible Shi'a clerical rule in Iraq.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Hani Mulqi, on a visit to
Egypt last month, said there is "real fear" that
Iraq will be ruled by "politicized religion,"
implying an Islamic regime such as the one in
Tehran.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia also fear increased Iranian
influence in the region.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit has urged
that differences between Sunnis and Shi'a should be
downplayed, stressing that they are all Arabs.
Many Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, have
strong Shi'a communities and are concerned that a
Shi'a victory in Baghdad could embolden their own
oppressed communities.
Syria is a special case among Iraq's neighbors. It
is a mostly Sunni country ruled by minority Shi'a
Alawite politicians, adherents to secular Ba'ath
Party ideology.
Nourizadeh notes Syria is clearly more concerned
about the possibility of having a democratic,
pro-Western government in Iraq than about the
religious affiliations of its future leaders.
"The Syrians would like to have at least some of
their friends in power. It seems that they are ready
to cope with Mr. Allawi and [Ghazi Ajil] al-Yawir if
they remain as the prime minister and the president
in Iraq. But if there is a government hostile toward
Syria with people like [Defense Minister Hazem]
Shaalan, of course, the Syrians will be threatened,"
Nourizadeh says.
In recent weeks, Shaalan has accused both Syria and
Iran of orchestrating terrorist attacks in Iraq.
The Kurdish Question
Meanwhile, Turkey has its own concerns about the
outcome of the Iraqi elections. Ankara is concerned
with developments in Iraqi Kurdistan, where on 30
January Kurds will also elect an interim Kurdish
Parliament. Ankara fears the elections might
strengthen Kurdish autonomy aspirations among its
own Kurdish minority and also increase Kurdish
influence in the Iraqi administration.
Last month, a delegation of Iraqi Kurds delivered a
petition to the United Nations calling for a
referendum on whether the Kurdish-run north should
be independent or remain part of Iraq. Turkey
strongly opposes an independent Kurdish state.
Yahia Said is a researcher specializing in Iraq and
other transition nations at the London School of
Economics. He says the main concern of all of Iraq's
neighbors is the possibility that the country may
descend into chaos.
"[There is a lot of talk about] Iranian influence
and Shi'a domination and the 'Shi'a crescent' and
all these things. So, it's nothing new. I think what
these people are most concerned with is Iraq
exploding or imploding, rather than a Shi'a
victory," Said says.
Said says that for many regional politicians, the
question remains open if the Iraqi elections will be
feasible at all under the current security
situation.
Allawi recently announced a 30-day extension of a
state of emergency in Iraq a bid to give government
forces more powers to safeguard the elections from
insurgent attacks.
http://www.unpo.org
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