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when the
United States was debating whether to invade Iraq,
there was one outcome that everyone agreed had to be
avoided at all costs: a civil war between Sunni and
Shiite Muslims that would create instability
throughout the Middle East and give terrorists a
new, ungoverned region that they could use as a base
of operations. The coming elections - long touted as
the beginning of a new, democratic Iraq - are
looking more and more like the beginning of that
worst-case scenario.
It's time to talk about postponing the elections.
If Iraq is going to survive as a nation, it has to
create a government in which the majority rules - in
this case, that means the Shiites - but the
minorities are guaranteed protection of their basic
rights and enough of a voice to influence important
decisions. The Kurds, non-Arab Sunnis who live in
the northeastern part of the country, seem to
believe that the elections will bring them what they
most want: relative autonomy to conduct their own
affairs as part of an Iraqi federation. But the
Sunni Arabs, who make up about 20 percent of the
population, have grown increasingly estranged. The
largest mainstream Sunni party has withdrawn from
the current interim government, and just about all
of the country's leading Sunni Arab politicians now
call either for postponing the elections or
boycotting them. Given the violence in Sunni areas,
even voters who wish to take part may hesitate to
turn out. In some places, the polls may not open at
all.
A postponement - which would have to be for a fixed
period of only two or three months - would not solve
all the safety problems. But it would be a sign to
the Sunni Arabs that their concerns were being taken
into consideration. That in itself could go a long
way toward reassuring them that the Shiite majority
was not planning to trample on their rights. The
interim government should convene an emergency
meeting of top leaders from all major Iraqi
communities to come up with a revised election
timetable and procedures that would optimize the
ability of minority groups to get proper
representation. The Sunni leaders, in return, would
have to promise to take part in the elections that
followed.
Worrying about whether the Sunnis will be included
in the government does not mean sympathizing with
their baser resentments. Under Saddam Hussein, the
Sunni minority reaped almost all of the good things
Iraq had to offer while trampling on the rights of
the Shiites and Kurds. Those days are over, and the
Sunnis simply have to accept the fact that they will
never again enjoy their old enormous share of the
pie. But if Iraq is to start moving beyond its long
history of communal hostility, the Shiites need to
demonstrate that they will not treat the Sunnis the
way the Sunnis treated them.
To understand what's happening in Iraq, imagine the
mind-set of the Sunnis - not the loathsome
terrorists who shoot election workers and kill
civilians with car bombs and mines, but the average
people, including middle-class men and women whose
lives have been ruined since the invasion.
The United States and its allies made a great many
mistakes in dealing with the Sunnis. On the top of
the list would be the early decision to disband the
Iraqi military and a decree, later reversed, that
banned tens of thousands of teachers, doctors and
other professionals who had belonged to Saddam
Hussein's Baath Party from government employment -
including many people who had joined the party
perfunctorily to keep out of trouble.
Since then, the Sunnis have discovered that the
American Army - which many regarded as all-powerful
- has not protected them from either the criminals
or the terrorists who have been operating throughout
their region since the overthrow of the Hussein
regime. Forced to huddle in their homes to avoid
kidnappers or suicide bombers, they have had plenty
of time to contemplate the fact that the Americans
have also not delivered on their vow to improve
infrastructure and provide reliable power and water
service. More recently, Sunni civilians have borne
the brunt of American counterinsurgency drives like
the one in Falluja, which have left residential
areas devastated and thousands homeless.
http://www.nytimes.com
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