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BAGHDAD, Iraq — Relentless violence by
insurgents threatens to disrupt today’s crucial
national elections in Iraq. But a more essential
challenge threatens Iraq’s future after votes are
cast.
Can the three main groups that contentiously share
this land stitch together a country despite their
competing ambitions and the current lawlessness?
Leaders of the Shiite and Sunni Muslim Arabs and the
ethnic Kurdish community are wrestling with the
issue of how their people — with different goals and
loyalties — can apportion authority after the
elections.
Power-sharing talks are under way.
If the majority Shiites win enough seats in the new
parliament, they could place one of their own —
perhaps a cleric — in the pivotal post of prime
minister. It would be a move certain to unnerve
Kurds and Sunnis.
Or if the embittered Sunni minority rejects the
election outright, it might be able to muster
political force in the provinces to block the other
groups from writing a constitution, thrusting the
new government into a political crisis.
Iraqis are voting for a 275-seat national assembly
that will then choose a new government. The
government will write a new constitution,
prescribing everything from the role of religion in
the government to the rights for women and
minorities.
When rules were established last year for conducting
the election and the constitution-writing process,
Kurds demanded a provision to allow any three of
Iraq’s 18 provinces veto power to block a new
constitution. Kurds control three provinces.
So do the Sunnis, and their leaders are threatening
to block the new constitution in their anger over
their impending election defeat.
Now, Shiite and Kurdish leaders, looking at the
post-election landscape, are talking about top
government jobs that can be given to Sunnis in order
to win their backing for a constitution.
“We want to assure everybody that if we get elected
we will not go our own way,” said Shiite party
spokesman Sa’ad Jawad Qindeel. “The goal is to have
a consensus. Without full participation we will not
have a full Iraq and will not have a stable Iraq.”
THE BIG THREE
The three groups — Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds — were
included in modern Iraq by borders established by
the colonial powers after World War I. At times,
they have gotten along well, even uniting to fight
the British in the 1920s.
But during Saddam Hussein’s brutal rule, Shiites and
Kurds suffered the most. Their differences could
become acute when the new government seeks to write
one constitution that fits all.
“I strongly believe (the election) will bring Iraqis
together. It will manifest the unity of the Iraq. It
will show that Iraqis from all colors ... can work
together,” said Qindeel, a spokesman for the
powerful Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution
in Iraq, or SCIRI.
But in Iraq’s north, where the Kurdish minority
hopes to preserve its autonomy by carving out a
loose federation with the rest of Iraq, people are
more wary.
“Some, like me, fear the results of the elections.
Maybe some party doesn’t accept the result of the
elections and maybe some fighting happens after the
elections,” said Hero Anwer, a Kurdish woman who
works in the divided Kurdish-Arab city of Kirkuk.
Iraqi and U.S. officials caution the election should
not be expected to reduce the car bombings,
assassinations, kidnappings and attacks on U.S.
troops. Similarly, the election will not prompt a
withdrawal soon of U.S. troops.
But a successful election could provide the next
government with a measure of legitimacy. That’s the
cherished intangible that indicates how much people
believe their government represents them and serves
them — something novel for Iraq.
THE SHIITES
Shiites, who comprise about 60 percent of Iraq’s 26
million people, see themselves on the verge of a
victory long denied through decades of rule by
Sunnis, who dominated Saddam’s regime. A grand
political coalition was formed at the urging of the
Shiite clergy, led by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
His brand of fundamentalism normally keeps clerics
out of politics, but it was his demand for elections
that kept the vote on track when others were calling
for postponement. His insistence that Shiites not
fight U.S. forces has been instrumental in
preventing a massive uprising in Iraq.
The Shiite coalition is led primarily by two
men:
• Abel Aziz al-Hakim, the cleric atop SCIRI who
maintains the loyalty of thousands of demobilized
fighters who during Saddam’s reign were trained
while in exile in Iran, the neighboring Islamic
state
• Ibrihim al-Jaafari, a physician who heads the
Islamic Dawa Party. He is one of Iraq’s deputy
presidents in the appointed interim government.
Both men could be in the running for a top position,
which could strain their cooperation.
That ticket is rivaled by a party headed by interim
Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite
who was once part of Saddam’s Baath Party. Many
young, secular Shiites and Sunnis see him as a
moderate alternative, though his rule has been
marred by corruption and ineffectiveness.
THE KURDS
The ethnic Kurds, who reside mainly in the country’s
far north, are led by Massoud Barzani and Jalal
Talabani, one-time warlords who steer separate
Kurdish political parties. They set aside their
sometimes-violent rivalry for several years as they
ran Kurdish affairs in a largely autonomous northern
region protected by U.S. jets in the late 1990s.
Many Kurds say they will not feel safe from
persecution from Arab Iraqis unless they have their
own country or an autonomous status with an Iraqi
federation.
Kurds comprise about 15 percent to 20 percent of
Iraq’s population. But with a history of their own
elections and living in relatively safe areas in the
north, they are expected to win a relatively large
number of seats in the assembly because of high
voter turnout.
THE SUNNIS
Sunnis are the wild card of the election and its
aftermath.
Many Sunni leaders have refused to partake in the
elections or called for a boycott by their
followers. The raging insurgency intimidates and
kills Sunnis who cooperate in the nation-building
process. Sunnis are estimated to represent about 20
percent of Iraq’s population.
Most Sunnis taking part in the elections say they
wanted a postponement. A low turnout among Sunnis,
particularly in battle-scarred cities plagued by the
insurgency, will undermine their chances of flexing
power in the new government.
“This will really make you wonder how legitimate the
elections are going to be, if more than one-third of
the country doesn’t vote,” said Hatem Mukhlis, a
Sunni candidate.
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