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BAGHDAD,
Iraq - Doubts about holding Iraqi national elections
on Jan. 30 produced an alliance few believed
possible - Sunni Arabs and Sunni Kurds united in
calling for a delay. Less than 24 hours later, the
alliance collapsed after Shiite Arabs made clear
they would not accept any postponement.
The flap over the election date, which began Friday,
illustrates the complexity of Iraq's ethnic-based
politics. It also provides insights into the welter
of conflicting interests and views in a fragmented
country trying to build democracy in the midst of an
armed uprising and foreign military occupation.
Sunni Muslim politicians pushed for the delay
because of widespread anger within their community
over this month's attack on the Sunni insurgent base
of Fallujah, which in turn produced a call by Sunni
clerics to boycott the vote.
In calling for a delay, the Sunnis managed to win
backing of representatives from the country's two
leading Kurdish parties. Collectively, the Kurds and
the Sunni Arabs form about 40 percent of Iraq's
nearly 26 million people - the rest of whom are
mostly Shiites.
But when the Shiite clerical leadership refused to
delay the balloting, the Kurds waffled, claiming
they never intended to agree to a postponement and
they were ready for elections whenever they occur.
The Iraqi National Accord, Prime Minister Ayad
Allawi's party, took part in the meeting that
produced the call for the delay.
But as soon as the Shiites spoke out, Allawi's
government said it was sticking by the Jan. 30 date
and his Accord party also said it never intended to
join in the call for an election delay.
One Shiite official, asked not to be identified,
said that if the Shiites lost on the battle over the
election date, they might demand their own
autonomous region in the south similar to what the
Kurds have in the north.
For the Kurds, a major goal is control of Kirkuk, a
major oil-producing center and ethnically mixed city
that is outside the Kurdish-ruled autonomous region.
The city's major ethnic communities - Arabs, Kurds
and Turkomen - each consider Kirkuk their own.
Kurdish parties have been encouraging Kurds who were
displaced from the Kirkuk area by Saddam Hussein, a
Sunni Arab, to return to the city. The goal is to
increase Kurdish numbers in time for a parallel
election Jan. 30, in which voters in the city will
decide whether to join the Kurdish autonomous
region.
Delaying the election would give the Kurds more time
to boost their numbers in Kirkuk, political analysts
say.
"The Kurdish political parties have interests in
postponing the general elections for a certain
period of time, simply to guarantee that the
municipal elections in Kirkuk will be also
postponed," Kurdish political analyst Assos Hardi
said.
Before last week's postponement call, both Kurdish
parties - the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the
Kurdistan Democratic Party - had insisted that the
referendum on the status of Kirkuk should not be
held until the government had implemented Article 58
of Iraq's interim constitution.
That article states that all Iraqis, including
Kurds, who were displaced under Saddam's regime,
have the right to return to their homes and receive
compensation. Both parties, however, publicly deny
any link between the timing of the Kirkuk vote and
the national election.
"These are totally different issues," said PUK
spokesman Sero Kihdar said. "Elections in Kirkuk
will not be possible if the law (Article 58) isn't
implemented. But at the same time, we are ready for
the general elections."
The contacts between the Kurdish and Sunni Arab
parties was also motivated by their common fear of
an overwhelming Shiite victory, especially if the
Sunni clerics convince many of their followers not
to take part in the election.
Hardi, the Kurdish analyst, said the Shiites "are
trying, peacefully, to take power in Iraq and all
estimates point to their massive victory."
Anticipating a big victory, the Shiites want no
delay in the election, believing it will guarantee
them the power long denied them under Ottoman,
British and Saddam's rule.
Hussain al-Shahristani, who is close to the top
Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, warned
the generally peaceful Shiite community might resort
to "other alternatives" if the election were
delayed.
Bayan Jaber, a member of a leading Shiite party,
said a delay would require amending the interim
constitution. If that happened, Jaber said "the
doors will be open for other amendments and those
calling for postponement will be the losers at the
end."
The Kurds, for one, aren't anxious for an open-ended
review of the interim constitution. The document
gives the Kurds, estimated at no more than 20
percent of the population, an effective veto of the
permanent constitution to be drafted by the
parliament elected in January.
Under the temporary charter, if two-thirds of the
voters in three provinces reject the permanent
constitution, it would fail to win ratification. The
Kurds control three provinces.
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