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The
two Kurdish parties, dominated by Masood Barzani of
the Kurdistan Democratic party, will put in a joint
list and may yet form an alliance with Allawi.
Iraq's Shia
parties have built a powerful political alliance
uniting moderates with extremists and seem likely to
dominate next month's general election. The
coalition, formed in weeks of private negotiations,
will put forward a joint list of candidates.
The process has been overseen by Iraq's most revered
Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who has
designated aides to unite the diverse Shia parties
and to vet the many independent candidates standing
with them.
Although he seeks no political role for himself, the
influence of the Iranian-born ayatollah will ensure
that the government has a deeply religious character
and that Islam is a central tenet of the
constitution that must be written next year.
Shia politicians are highly organised and intent on
holding the elections on time, despite the violence
that still grips Iraq and the pressure for a delay
from their Sunni and Kurdish political rivals. If
they succeed it will be the first time for centuries
that the Shia have run the country, achieving what
many have come to regard as their birthright.
"We are pushing the government and the political
parties very hard so that we can have elections on
time," said Jawad al-Maliki, a cultural historian
who spent 25 years living in exile and is a senior
figure in the large Islamic Dawa party.
"We feel very strongly that this crisis -- the
coalition forces, the corruption -- is all happening
because there are no elections in Iraq."
A small committee dominated by Ayatollah Sistani's
aides is overseeing the joint list of candidates. On
January 30 voters are due to elect 275 members of a
national assembly, which will then choose a prime
minister and Cabinet. The assembly's prime task will
be to write a Constitution, to be ratified by a
second general election at the end of the year.
The list is topped by the leaders of Islamic Dawa
and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution,
Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. The
coalition also includes Ahmad Chalabi, the secular
Shia exile who was once a Pentagon favourite to rule
post-war Iraq, and representatives of Moqtada al-Sadr,
the hardline Shia cleric who has led a series of
uprisings against the US occupation.
It is the first sign of rapprochement between the
exiles and the opponents of Saddam Hussein who
stayed in Iraq.
Others involved include the Fadhila party, a
moderate Islamist group opposed to the occupation.
"We want to take the Americans out of our country
through negotiations, not by fighting," said its
political leader, Nadeem al-Jabbery, a professor of
politics at Baghdad University.
"If we don't have elections or an elected government
then the Americans will stay and our problems will
continue."
Half the list will be party members, the other half
independents approved by Ayatollah Sistani. On
Tuesday an alliance of 38 small Shia parties voiced
the first public dissatisfaction with Ayatollah
Sistani's plans. Hussein al-Mousawi, spokesperson
for the Shia Political Council, said the key
positions on the Shia list were going to extremist
candidates who "believe in the rule of religious
clerics".
Notably absent from the list, for now, is Ayad
Allawi, the secular Shia who was appointed prime
minister by the US in June this year. "The list is
not finished yet. We have invited Allawi but we
don't know if he will say yes or no," Maliki said.
Some sources say that Ayatollah Sistani is reluctant
to have Allawi on the list and believes he is
tainted by his close alliance with the US. Some Shia
politicians are still uncomfortable with his
membership of the Ba'ath party before he defected in
the 1970s.
Other parties are forming their own, smaller lists
of allied candidates. The two Kurdish parties,
dominated by Masood Barzani of the Kurdistan
Democratic party, will put in a joint list and may
yet form an alliance with Allawi.
Ghazi al-Yawar, the US-appointed president, has
formed his own party of Sunni and Shia figures,
including several current government ministers, and
they will put forward their own list. The most
likely candidates for prime minister remain Allawi,
Jaafari of Islamic Dawa, and Adil Abdul-Mehdi, the
number two in the Supreme Council.
Just two months from the elections it is difficult
to identify a specific political programme followed
by any of the Shia parties or their coalition. But
given Ayatollah Sistani's role and the strong
religious character of most of the parties involved,
it is clear that Islam will have a key role.
Some will want to introduce an Islamic legal system.
Under the temporary Constitution supervised by the
US occupation authorities earlier this year a
compromise was reached: Islam was designated a
source for legislation but not the sole source. It
is likely that the more conserv ative Shias will
want to change that. In the slum areas of eastern
Baghdad where Moqtada al-Sadr holds sway there has
already been a dramatic Islamisation of society,
setting up new religious schools and requiring
schoolgirls to cover their hair.
The role of clerics in the new government will also
be strongly fought over.
Jabbery, of the Fadhila party, represents a moderate
viewpoint but still sees a potential political role
for the clergy.
"In this country we would like the Islamic clerics
to be outside the system, because they will work
much better that way," he said. But he added: "They
will keep their eye on the political movements and
they can step in at the right time if something
really goes wrong or makes them feel they should
change things if there is a crisis."
Other parties are still vague about their agenda.
The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution says:
"Our programme will adhere to Islamic principles and
will be based on Shia support."
- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004
http://www.mg.co.za
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