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During
his recent visit to Taiwan, Prime Minister Nechervan
Idris Barzani of the Kurdistan Regional Government
was received by high government officials. Because
they were the first officials from Iraq to visit
Taiwan since the establishment of the Iraqi interim
government, the delegation was the focus of much
attention.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Mark Chen (陳唐山) revealed
that Barzani during his visit exchanged ideas with
Taiwanese officials regarding the founding of a
state belonging to the Kurdish people, and he also
wanted to exchange representative offices. Based on
the principle of creating a wide range of friendly
relationships, we should seize on this opportunity
for exchange and further strengthen the relationship
between Taiwan and Kurdistan.
Due to the complexity of the question of
independence for the Kurdish people, however, Taiwan
should carefully assess both international and
internal Kurdish factors before offering unequivocal
support for a Kurdish state and deciding whether or
not to exchange representative offices.
The Kurdish people have long hoped to be able to
establish their own state, but opposition from
various countries together with Kurdish disunity
have made the road toward nationhood an arduous one.
Armed intervention by the US and UK was the main
reason why Iraqi Kurds could enjoy autonomy
following the 1991 Gulf War.
In order to protect the Kurds and weaken the power
of Saddam Hussein, the US, UK and France in April
1991 created a no-fly zone in Iraq above the 36th
parallel, forbidding Iraqi aircraft to enter the
zone. A US-led multinational force patrolled the
area and enforced the regulations so Saddam could
not take military action against Kurds in the
northern part of the country. Thus they could
establish an autonomous regional government, of
which Barzani is the incumbent prime minister.
It should be noticed that the Kurdish area in Iraq
remains split. The Kurd Democratic Party led by
Massoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) led by Jalal Talabani are the two main forces
among Iraq's Kurds. The two parties formed a joint
government in 1992, but the power distribution issue
gradually led to a dispute that exploded into a
full-blown civil war in 1994. In an attempt to
defeat the PUK, the Kurd Democratic Party requested
the help of Saddam's troops in 1996. The two parties
set up separate governments, both claiming control
over the whole Kurdish area in northern Iraq.
British and US mediation resulted in the two parties
signing a cease-fire agreement, but to this day the
two parts of the Kurdish area remain separately
ruled.
The internal Kurdish split has always been one of
the factors impeding the formation of a Kurdish
state. Kurds in different areas often rule
themselves, and some of the leaders of important
organizations do not get along with each other. Some
countries are using these weak points to further
weaken the Kurdish people. During the Iran-Iraq war,
both countries made use of Kurds in the opponent's
country, and Turkey has used Iraqi Kurds to fight
Kurds in Turkey. The Iraqi general elections planned
for March next year will be key to answering the
question of whether a peaceful solution to the split
in the Kurdish area will be possible.
Nechervan Idris Barzani, the prime minister of the
Kurdistan Regional Government, is a member of the
Kurd Democratic Party. But because the Kurd
Democratic Party and the PUK are equally strong, it
is difficult to predict the outcome of the
elections. When expressing its support for the
Kurdish people, Taiwan should avoid giving the
impression that we as outsiders are choosing sides.
In addition to the unpredictability of internal
factors, we must also consider the attitudes of
other countries concerning the Kurdish issue. Apart
from Iraq, the Kurdish people are distributed over
Turkey, Iran, Syria and Armenia. None of these
countries want independence for Iraq's Kurds lest
Kurds in their own country emulate them, creating an
independence domino effect. During the war between
the US and Iraq, Turkey was concerned that the Kurds
in Iraq would declare independence, and therefore
threatened military intervention. Unless these
countries change their policies, they will continue
to block the formation of an independent Kurdish
state in Iraq.
Although the US has assisted the Kurds in obtaining
autonomy, its main goal has been to restrain Saddam,
not to support the formation of an independent
Kurdish state. The CIA has intervened in the Kurdish
civil war by supporting attacks by the PUK on the
Kurd Democratic Party. With Saddam now gone, the
Kurdish people's strategic importance to the US is
dwindling, and the US is unwilling to offend main
Iraqi ethnic groups or Turkey over the Kurdistan
issue.
These internal and international factors make it
unlikely that Iraq's Kurds will be able to establish
an independent state in the short term. Iraq's
Kurdish leaders also recognize these limitations. If
Iraq establishes a federal system of government
offering the Kurds some autonomous powers, the Kurds
would be willing to compromise and refrain from
seeking independence from Iraq.
Given this situation, there is no need for Taiwan to
take a position on the question of an independent
Kurdish state. The Kurdistan Regional Government's
suggestion that Taiwan and Kurdistan exchange
permanent representative offices would strengthen
mutual exchanges between Kurdistan and Taiwan.
Taiwan must, however, give cautious consideration to
the reaction of Turkey and other concerned states.
If such an exchange does not win the understanding
of these states, Taiwan's losses would outweigh its
gains. The visit by the delegation from the
Kurdistan Regional Government is encouraging from a
diplomatic perspective, but we shouldn't be too
eager, and should instead cautiously assess the
situation in order to maximize gains.
Fang Tien-sze is an assistant research fellow at the
Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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