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There
was no sense of celebration in Iraqi Kurdistan as
Paul Bremer flew out of Baghdad after handing over
sovereignty to the new Iraqi government.
The handover left the Kurds in sombre mood, deeply
anxious about a future which they believe is as
uncertain as ever.
In immediate practical terms, it will make no
difference to the Iraqi Kurds.
They have been running their own affairs virtually
independently since 1991, when they rose up against
Saddam Hussein after the first Gulf war, fled to the
mountains as he struck back, then returned to their
homes with a western air umbrella keeping the
Baghdad government's forces at bay.
Since 1992, they have had their own parliament in
Irbil.
Mini-statehood
Because their region - recognised officially as
Iraqi Kurdistan under the 1970 constitution - is
divided between the two major Kurdish factions, it
has two separate governments with all the trappings
of mini-statehood.
So what has just been given to the rest of Iraq, the
Kurds have been enjoying in practice for over a
decade.
And the leadership struggles now just starting up in
the Iraqi Arab communities, among the Sunnis and
Shia, have been largely resolved among the Kurds
long since, giving their area a stability and
cohesion the rest of Iraq lacks.
Despite all this, the Kurds are deeply worried in
the wake of the handover.
The United Nations resolution adopted in June to
cover the post-Coalition period did not specifically
enshrine what they regard as their right to autonomy
within a federal Iraq.
They feel their freedom is once again under threat.
The CPA also left unresolved the explosive issue of
who owns the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.
Recent years have brought the northern Iraqi Kurds
increasing prosperity as well as relative stability
and security.
Since the overthrow of the Baathist regime last
year, there is practically full employment and a
building boom in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Seeking independence
Small wonder that an apparently large majority of
ordinary Iraqi Kurds would strongly favour outright
independence, though that is a dirty word both in
Baghdad and among Iraq's neighbours - especially
Turkey, Iran and Syria, all of which have their own
Kurdish minorities.
"It's better for us to have our independence," said
Jalal Kerim, a retired teacher.
"When a child grows up, he wants to leave his
family, to have his own life. That doesn't mean
giving up the family ties, but we all like to live
independently."
"We gave sacrifices to achieve this
semi-independence we have now," added Gona Haji, a
female student.
"Many Kurds died for this, so it is very bad to
rejoin Iraq. The solution is to change this
semi-independence in Kurdistan into true
independence."
"The only thing we have in common with the Iraqi
Arabs is that we're Muslims. But we Kurds have our
own language, geography, history and economy - all
the things you need to be independent," said Tariq,
a writer.
"The coalition is forcing our political parties to
rejoin Iraq, but the Kurds want independence."
But Iraqi Kurdish leaders know that pursuing
independence in their land-locked patch of rugged
mountains, fertile valleys and dusty plains would be
a disaster course, given hostility from powerful
neighbours and from the rest of Iraq.
Constitution conflict
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So they have opted for regional self-rule within a
federal Iraq, and they make it clear that this will
be their absolute bottom line in the tough talks
still to come on Iraq's future constitution.
"After all the bitter experience the Kurdish people
and the people of Kurdistan have been through, there
can be no retreat," Masoud Barzani, leader of the
Kurdistan Democratic Party, told BBC News Online.
"Our basic condition for staying in Iraq is that it
should be a federal, democratic, pluralistic Iraq.
"A permanent constitution which does not include
that, cannot be accepted. If there is no agreement
on that, there will be no constitution."
But the Kurds have been dismayed that Iraqi Arab
factions, particularly among the Shia, who supported
Kurdish autonomy during the period of opposition to
Saddam Hussein, have now apparently abandoned that
commitment in favour of a stronger, more centralised
Iraqi state.
"We sacrificed in order to live free in this
country, and that we should have rights," said Mr
Barzani.
"We hope that events won't develop in a negative
direction, and that Kurdish-Arab brotherhood can be
strengthened.
"But if the rights of the Kurdish people are denied,
then of course, the Kurdish people cannot accept to
live as second-class citizens. They must live free
and with rights."
Territorial gains
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At the core of the Kurds' self-reliance are their
peshmerga guerrilla forces.
They fought Saddam Hussein for decades, and joined
the coalition to help overthrow him.
Last year's war brought them territorial gains -
they expanded their area of control by about
two-thirds, seizing some 30,000 square kilometres of
what they regard as original Kurdish land.
Their arsenals were also swollen by the capture of
many Iraqi army tanks and guns.
"The peshmerga are not militias, they are a regular
Kurdish army that fought to liberate Iraq, not just
Kurdistan," said Capt Azad Muwafaq.
"In the future their name may be changed, but that
doesn't mean they'll be dissolved like other
militias."
The peshmerga are not being formally disbanded as
the Iraqi Arab militias are supposed to be.
They are being dispersed around the new police and
civil defence units.
But nobody doubts that if it came to the crunch,
they would rally to the flag of Kurdistan and fight
to protect Kurdish freedom.
Kurdish leaders hope it will not come to that, and
say they will work hard with their Iraqi Arab
interlocutors to try to reach an understanding in
the coming months over federalism and the
constitution.
But many Kurds are angry at the coalition for, as
they see it, leaving them in the lurch.
And they are even angrier about the situation at
Kirkuk, which is already very tense and could
provide the flashpoint for serious trouble.
Under Saddam Hussein's arabisation policy, uncounted
thousands of Kurds, Turcomans and other non-Arabs
were driven out of Kirkuk to make way for mainly
Shia Arabs brought up from the south.
The Kurds are bitter that many of those displaced
have not been allowed to return to their homes.
"On the issue of dealing with arabisation, the
coalition dragged their feet a great deal, and we
censure them harshly for that," said KDP leader
Masoud Barzani.
"They reneged on the promises they gave us. Of
course Kirkuk is a Kurdish city.
"Basically this issue is not even open to discussion
with anyone."
The Kurds accepted a solution put forward in the
Temporary Administration Law (the provisional
constitution) in March, under which the original
inhabitants would be allowed to return, Arab
settlers would do likewise and be compensated, and
Kurdish towns hived off from Kirkuk governorate to
adjacent Arab provinces would be re-attached to
Kirkuk.
There would then be a referendum on whether Kirkuk
should join an autonomous Kurdish region or remain
with Baghdad.
The Kurds say they have no doubt at all which way it
would go.
Simmering tensions
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But that is a long-term project, in a situation
where time may be running out as tempers rise.
The Kurds want Kirkuk - with its oil-laden environs
- as their capital.
But local Arabs, Turcomans and others are as
fiercely opposed to the idea as the Kurds are for
it.
There have been many incidents.
Alarmists believe Kirkuk could even help ignite a
civil war.
"I'm afraid that the Kurds may be beginning to lose
patience," Ahmad Askari, a Kurdish member of the
Kirkuk city council told BBC News Online.
"There may be trouble, because Kurdish houses are
still occupied by Arabs brought here under
arabisation. They are still in Kirkuk. If there is a
strong government, it will stop these steps to civil
war. If not, I am afraid."
The fate of Kirkuk could well set the pattern for
Iraq's near future: Will it be resolved by reason
and dialogue, or by inter-communal violence and
force of arms?
http://news.bbc.co.uk
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